A highly classified US document has revealed a “shocking” scenario: a Chinese quantitative superiority that could inflict a military defeat on the United States in the event of a war over Taiwan.
According to the British newspaper The Telegraph, Beijing’s reliance on its overwhelming quantitative advantage and advanced missile systems could enable it to strike symbols of American power in a matter of minutes.
Experts, according to the newspaper, believe that the document, titled “Overmatch Brief,” which has “alarmed” officials who have seen it, presents Washington with an existential test regarding its ability to maintain deterrence in the Pacific.
The assessments show that the US military’s reliance on expensive and technologically complex weapons makes it vulnerable to ballistic and hypersonic missiles that Beijing is producing in massive quantities, while the US military industry’s ability to keep pace is waning.
The war simulation, according to the document, indicates “heavy” American losses, including the destruction of aircraft carriers like the USS Gerald Ford, the downing of dozens of fifth-generation fighter jets, and the neutralization of troop deployment capabilities before they reach Taiwan.
In contrast, China displays a formidable infrastructure of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles, spearheaded by hypersonic systems, with an arsenal estimated at around 600 hypersonic missiles, in addition to naval capabilities and diesel-electric submarines that would significantly complicate any American action.
This scenario reinforces China’s advantage in low-cost military production, compared to the bureaucratic delays and high costs on the American side.
The document also warned of another dimension to the conflict: Chinese cyberattacks could penetrate vital networks supplying US military bases with energy, water, and communications, potentially crippling the military’s logistical capabilities should war break out. Adding to this are warnings that Washington could run out of essential munitions within weeks, given the depletion of its stockpiles through supporting other allies in parallel conflicts.
In light of these bleak assessments, observers believe that US deterrence policy faces an unprecedented challenge, especially since China considers control of Taiwan a “historical inevitability,” even if it awaits overwhelming superiority to ensure the operation’s success and avoid a strategic backlash that could threaten the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
